Holger Rust's Zukunftsillusionen: Kritik der Trendforschung PDF

By Holger Rust

ISBN-10: 3531156594

ISBN-13: 9783531156590

Holger Rust gilt als der pointierteste und wirkungsvollste Kritiker der feuilletonistischen „Trend- und Zukunftsforschung“. In seiner aktuellen services zu den jüngsten Angeboten der Branche unterzieht er die Methoden und Befunde der vielfältigen pattern- und Zukunftsagenturen aus wissenschaftlicher wie aus wirtschaftspraktischer Perspektive einer profunden examine. Er kommt dabei zum Ergebnis, dass die meist vollmundigen Versprechungen weder methodologisch noch inhaltlich fundiert sind. In einer dezidierten examine diagnostiziert er vor allem im Hinblick auf die Anwendbarkeit der development- und Zukunftsdiagnosen rhetorisch aufgeputzte Trivialität und strategischen Opportunismus.
Die so genannten „Megatrends“ sind, wie der Autor nachweist, durch die Analysen öffentlicher und wissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitutionen sattsam bekannt und stehen jedem Interessenten zur freien Verfügung. Die gängige pattern- und Zukunftsforschung erweist sich vor diesem Hintergrund inhaltlich und methodologisch als teurer und, wie die Analysen zeigen, nicht selten irreführender Umweg. Der Autor zeigt klare Alternativen und belegt die Stärke einer pragmatischen Soziologie für die wissenschaftliche wie die wirtschaftliche Praxis gleichermaßen.

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Additional info for Zukunftsillusionen: Kritik der Trendforschung

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Auch mir missfielen die vielen Scharlatane. Dazu kam, dass ich vom weltberühmten John Naisbitt (‚Megatrends’) enttäuscht war. Er verteidigte verbissen sein Werk ‚Asia Trends’, das die Asiaten dramatisch überschätzt, obwohl es auf den Markt gekommen war, als Asien in die tiefste Krise fiel“ (Gansterer 2004: 21). Später, 2007, schrieb Gansterer im Bericht über den von ihm moderierten Zukunftskongress einer Bank über die „Stehaufmandln“ der Trendforschung: „Der Prestigeverlust der Zukunftsforscher-Branche durch den vermeintlichen Naisbitt-Flop brachte einem trend-Mitarbeiter hohen Gewinn: Professor Holger Rust, damals trend-Essayist und Führungskraft des Publizistik-Instituts der Uni Wien, publizierte den Bestseller ‚Das Antitrend Buch – Klares Denken statt Trendgemunkel’.

Ein Dienstwagen werde gestellt. Das Echo auf diese Anzeige wird von den Autoren als entlarvende Selbstbezichtigung der deutschen Professorenschaft gefeiert: „Unser Köder schien zu schmecken. Mit fünf bis zehn Zuschriften hatten wir gerechnet – von 44 Bewerbungen deutscher Professoren wurden wir überflutet“ (168). ) ein wichtiges Kriterium für die breite Rezeption der Studien in den Medien darstellte, reicht hier eine im statistischen Sinne absolut insignifikante Größe zur Fundierung einer empirisch anmutenden „Studie“, die alle skizzierten Motive virtuos nutzt und einige weitere 48 sUppLex berührt – unter anderem die fundamentale Kritik an Deutschlands Bildungssystem.

Das erklärte Ziel: Überwindung der Dominanz der Sinus-Milieu-Modelle durch das Stilkonzept des Zukufttsinstituts, so Horx in verschiedenen Vorträgen. Mit seinen Stilgruppen lasse sich das Marketing optimieren. Um nur einen weiteren Beleg für diese Optimierung durch rhetorischen Konstruktivismus des Zukunftsinstituts zu liefern, ist ein Blick auf die „Studie“ über das Essen von morgen interessant, verantwortet von der „freien Ernährungswissenschaftlerin“ und Mitarbeiterin des Zukunftsinstituts, Hanni Rützler.

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Zukunftsillusionen: Kritik der Trendforschung by Holger Rust

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